Emmy Predictions

When the Emmy nominations came out in July, it was glorious. For the first time in … ever? … the Emmy people seemed to get things right honoring the best TV has to offer.

There was no Boston Legal to laugh at, no Mentalist to scratch our heads over, no Entourage to make us think the voters just woke up in Doc Brown’s DeLorean in 2004. Just the best actors, actresses and TV shows vying for the prizes.

he's got some good ideas, at least

he's got some good ideas, at least

What make it even more impressive is that with more shows every year from HBO, Showtime, USA, FX, TNT and whomever, there are twice the amount of shows in contention than there were 20 years ago. So every year from now on in — as long as they keep getting the nominations right — will be the hardest year to pick Emmy winners.

That’s what I’m here for!

Before we start, we need some changes to the Emmys:

Change 1: The rotating network thing is a joke. It gives the impression that no one cares about it, so they just shift the show to a different network every year. Make people fight over this show!

Change 2: Jimmy Fallon has it right— make this thing more interactive with the viewers. TV will survive by being interactive. The reality TV craze has made everyone think they can be part of any show, so just go a step further and let people be part of the show.

Change 3: Get rid of “OUTSTANDING” for the category distinction. Does anyone even use that anymore? It’s a funny word that when used in a sitcom, always seems to get a laugh. That makes it a stupid word, like “Walla Walla.” I always think of the Wings episode where Brian was forced to go out with the scary lady cop and she kept saying, “Outstanding” as her affirmative answer to everything. And don’t change it to “superb” because then I’ll just think of Beautiful Girls.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY

Should win: Glee. It may come as a surprise to people who don’t watch — and even some people who do — that this was the funniest TV of last year. I’ve been laughing just as hard randomly rewatching episodes this summer. Maybe harder. I distinctly remember five or six lines from last season’s TV shows that I quote in everyday conversation, and Glee had four of them.

Will win: Modern Family. In the British Open golf tournament, it’s tradition for the master engraver to etch the winner’s name on the trophy while the tournament is still going on. If that was taking place at the Emmys, they might as well have started the engraving in October. I’m still not sure what makes it better than The Office, but people seem to fall over themselves heaping copious amounts of praise on this show. They started that in May of 2009 when it was the only show ABC chose to show a completed pilot for, and hasn’t stopped yet.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA

Should win: Mad Men. I’m pretty sure I’ve stated its case enough in the last few years, but The Gypsy and the Hobo episode of last October — when Betty confronted Don about his lies — was far and away the best hour of TV I saw last year, and from what I heard, that was the episode they submitted for consideration.

Will win: Emmy history is littered with seminal shows honored in their final year on TV. In a year when we lost three of the most fan-devoted shows of the last 10 years — 24 and Law and Order — it’s the one that’s nominated in this category, Lost, that’s going to win. Even if Emmy voters don’t get the whole thing.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR, DRAMA

Will win: The shows I watched, no one was better than Jon Hamm in Mad Men last year. And it’s not even close.

sure, hon, you were ... outstanding!

sure, hon, you were ... outstanding!

Should win: Michael C. Hall. It’s tough to overstate how much is put on his shoulders. There isn’t another credible actor on this show. NOT ONE! Dexter is in 80 percent of the scenes, and when he’s not in it, you’re just waiting around for him to come back like your viewing life depends on it. Why do you think they keep bringing in big-time stars — Jimmy Smits, John Lithgow — to spar with him for a year? Because if they didn’t, the show would suck. The conversations in the Hall household must be incredible at the end of the day:

Jennifer Carpenter, Hall’s real-life wife, who plays his sister Deb on the show: So how do you think I did today, Mike? I think I nailed that scene when I dropped 50 F-bombs for no reason!

Hall (pretending he’s watching TV and didn’t hear her): Hmm? Oh, yeah. You … uh, you killed it! Get it? Killed it? Because Dexter’s a serial killer? That’s funny. Can we talk about this later, I’m watching (finally actually looks at the TV) … Two and a Half Men?!?!?! (Changes channel like the remote is on fire.)

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA

they need to win some something, right?

they need to win some something, right?

Will win: Julianna Margulies. When you pick up the paper on Monday … oh, who am I kidding, when you log on to tvguide.com or whatever, the headline will be something along the lines of “Emmy Rookies Shine!”

Should win: Connie Britton. We haven’t seen female acting like this on TV in … I can’t remember when. It was scary how good she was and even scarier that it’s her first nomination in four seasons.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR, COMEDY

Should win: If this year was the rebirth of TV comedy, then why am I so bored with these nominees? Is it a bad year, or are we just tired of these guys in these roles getting nominations, with 21 between Alec Baldwin (4), Steve Carell (5), Larry David (4) and Tony Shaloub (8). Jim Parsons is funny as Sheldon on Big Bang Theory, but I just don’t find the show as funny as everyone else does. Plus, he’s turning into the next generation of Urkel, being overused because of fan love. So why not just throw it to Matthew Morrison, who probably did the best job of the year anyway. The episode that he found out about Terri faking the pregnancy is about as good a display of TV acting you’re going to see.

Will win: Larry David, because there’s got to be a surprise somewhere.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS, COMEDY

give it to her

give it to her

Should win: Amy Poehler. Steve Carell isn’t the funniest thing about The Office, and Poehler isn’t the funniest thing about Parks and Recreation. But that doesn’t mean they might not be the most worthy in their categories for what they bring to the show. Parks and Recreation was the biggest surprise of last year, improving more than I thought was even possible. When a show improves that much, the credit rightfully goes to the captain of the ship, not Aziz Ansari shoveling coal into the boiler.

Will win: Toni Collette. Ladies and gentleman, allow me to introduce you to the Tony Shaloub of the ’10s. Actor playing a borderline comedic role with a psychological disability. As long as Showtime keeps this on, she’s probably going to keep winning.

Best of the rest, who will win:

SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY: Ty Burrell, Modern Family.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA: Martin Short, Damages.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY: Jane Lynch, Glee.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men.

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