Assessing the Damage

One of my favorite things to do with summer movies is make box office predictions.

at least i got toy story 3 and iron man 2 right

at least i got toy story 3 and iron man 2 right

The first magazine I ever saw do this was Premiere back in, I believe, 1993. After that, I got its summer movie preview every year for at least a decade. So this is a complete admission that I’ve been stealing straight from Premiere. They probably stole it off someone else, so who cares. And they’re dead now anyway!

I’m putting out the extended PopRox summer movie preview here on Friday, then the truncated version will be in the paper Sunday. I’ve done this for the past, I think, four years, and realized I’ve never really checked my work. So I wanted to see if I had an ounce of credibility, or if I was just really good at faking my way through this stuff. So let’s check my predictions from the summer of 2010. I wish I could put them in columns next to each other, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. If anyone knows how to do that in WordPress, feel free to hit the comments.

HOW THEY FINISHED THE 2010 SUMMER (domestic box office $$$ in millions)

1. Toy Story 3 ($415)

2. Iron Man 2 ($312)

3. Twilight: Eclipse ($300)

4. Inception ($293)

5. Despicable Me ($251)

6. Shrek 4 ($239)

7. Karate Kid ($176)

8. Grown Ups ($162)

9. Last Airbender ($131)

10. Other Guys ($119)

MY PREDICTIONS (green good, red bad)

1. Toy Story 3 ($450)

2. Iron Man 2 ($350)

3. Shrek 4 ($325)

4. Twilight: Eclipse ($250)

5. Prince of Persia ($175)
ick, what was i thinking

ick, what was i thinking

6. Sex and the City 2 ($170)
 
7. Robin Hood ($165)

8. Last Airbender ($160)

9. Grown Ups ($150)

Looks like I overestimated just about all the dollar amounts. Of my predictions, the only ones I underestimated were Twilight and Grown Ups, but the Adam Sandler movie was only by $12 million. That’s probably a good lesson for this year’s predictions — go lower than I think.

I really screwed up Prince of Persia (15th, $91 million) and Sex and the City 2 (14th, $95 million) but I’m happy they failed since they were probably my two least favorite movies of last summer to talk about. Robin Hood finished 12th for the summer with $105 million, so that’s not too bad. I never would have expected it to get bad reviews, but that killed it.

no choice but to hang may hat on jonah hex

no choice but to hang may hat on jonah hex

My #10 prediction got cut in the name of space when it got sent to the page, I just can’t remember for the life of me what it was. I’d like to say it was Inception, but I’d be lying because I included that in my list of potential bombs. Swing and a miss! Oh wait, now I remember — it was Knight and Day (finished 18th). Yeesh. That needs a red, Knight and Day. So basically I was only good for 50 percent. Crap. I do remember thinking Other Guys should make about $110 million, I just didn’t think that would be enough to crack the top 10.

Speaking of those bombs and surprises, I had A-Team (17th), Dinner for Schmucks (19th) and Eat, Pray, Love (16th) listed as possible surprisingly big earners, then had Inception, Karate Kid and Jonah Hex listed as probable bombs. Does the fact that I nailed Jonah Hex (#131 for the year) as the bomb of the summer excuse the fact that I totally whiffed on the other two? Didn’t think so. I’m not quite sure how I completely omitted Despicable Me from any kind of contention.

I’ll be out of town tomorrow (and won’t be back until Tuesday, no Monday blog, sorry) but I hope to get the summer movie preview posted sometime before noon. See you Tuesday, when I’ll have a new contest announcement for local tickets. Viva la free stuff!

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