(This is a preview of Sunday’s PopRox column that will appear in the Pocono Record. Yes, it’s a little early right now to talk about Golden Globe nominations, but for Sunday’s column, when I try to look ahead to the most interesting thing of the upcoming week, it won’t be.)
Predicting the Oscar nominations isn’t terribly hard. Predicting the Golden Globes is almost impossible.
But when the Hollywood Foreign Press announces its Golden Globe nominees at 8 a.m. Dec. 13, awards season will be off and running at a pace that won’t stop until the Oscars in February.
That means we have to put just a little bit of thought into whose name might get called. At least we can make some general guesses based on the small amount of meaningful, measurable history the Globes has:
There will be a frustrating surprise in the movie categories that will be completely ignored by Oscar nominations.
Kind of like how you ignore your drunk uncle at Christmas dinner when he starts making off-off-color observations. “Oh, it’s just Uncle Bernie, don’t worry about it, he’ll be gone in an hour.” That’s how most people treat the Golden Globes when they hear movies like The Tourist, Red, Alice in Wonderland and It’s Complicated get nominated in the best picture, musical or comedy, category. Calm down, it’s the Golden Globes, no one will care in a week. We’ll feel exactly the same when Barbra Streisand gets nominated for The Guilt Trip.
Best guess: In a year where there just aren’t that many quality, mainstream comedies, at least one of the following will be nominated in the comedy/musical category: This is 40 (screams mistake Golden Globes nomination), The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Pitch Perfect and Seven Psychopaths. They will then follow that up with exactly zero Oscar nominations.
Each “best show” television category will have at least one first-year show.
In 2009, the TV drama category included all returning shows — and that was the only time that happened in more than a decade. In 2008, all the nominees in the comedy category were returning shows, and that hadn’t happened since 2002 and hasn’t happened since. So odds are, there will be at least one new show in each category nominated.
Best guess: For drama, it will be HBO’s The Newsroom. For comedy, it will be Girls for sure, probably Veep and maybe even House of Lies. A new network show probably isn’t coming close.
Les Miserables will lead the way with, like, a bajillion nominations.
This one is one of the surest bets ever. It’s European-based. It’s a straight musical destined for good reviews. It’s a star-studded roster of Golden Globes favorites. This is like taking Golden Globes candy from a baby.
Best guess: It gets eight nominations, just short of the record the movie Nashville set in 1976 with nine. It doesn’t set the record only because there is just one Les Miserables original song to get nominated. Which, of course, it will.
Where does Silver Linings Playbook fit?
It’s not a musical. We can eliminate that right off the bat. But it’s billed as a comedy-drama, and all the reviews and previews have played it that way with equal parts comedy and drama. Does it go into the comedy pile to face off against Les Miserables or does it go into drama, and likely knock out a drama contender?
Best guess: Comedy. If for no other reason than to avoid the embarrassment of hearing 21 Jump Street announced as a nominee Thursday morning.
The networks are getting shut out — again.
The Golden Globes did it first last year by not nominating one network drama (first time that happened) then the Emmys followed suit by not nominating a network drama either (ditto). What’s changed this year? Did CSI suddenly develop heart? Did Revenge stop soaping it up? Did Person of Interest out of the blue become remotely interesting? Did everyone on Parenthood stop talking all over each other? No, no, doubt it, and of course not!
Best guess: There are probably two chances for a network drama to score a nomination: The Good Wife (about a 35 percent chance) or Once Upon a Time (5 percent chance). If you’re looking for a reallllllly big longshot I’d make NCIS a .001 percent chance, just because it is such a phenomenon and the Globes have tended to favor ratings more than the Emmys. but when you’ve got names like Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Boardwalk Empire, The Newsroom, Dexter, Boss, Walking Dead, Justified and Sons of Anarchy already jockeying for position, that makes it hard for the networks to break in.